EMA+RSI Buy/Sell with Fibonacci GuideSingle-Instance EUR/USD & GBP/USD Trend+MACD ATR EA
Purpose:
This EA is designed for automated Forex trading on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. It identifies trend-based trading opportunities, dynamically calculates position sizes based on your available capital and risk percentage, and manages trades with ATR-based stop-loss and take-profit levels, including optional trailing stops.
Key Features:
Auto Pair Selection:
Compares the trend strength of EUR/USD vs GBP/USD using a combination of EMA slopes and MACD direction.
Automatically trades the stronger trending pair.
Trend & Signal Detection:
Uses Fast EMA / Slow EMA crossover for trend direction.
Confirms trend with MACD line vs signal line.
Generates long and short signals only when trend and MACD align.
Dynamic SL/TP:
Stop-loss and take-profit are calculated based on ATR (Average True Range).
Supports optional trailing stops to lock in profits.
Position Sizing:
Automatically calculates micro-lot sizes based on your capital and risk percentage.
Ensures risk per trade does not exceed the defined % of your account equity.
Chart Visualization:
Plots Fast EMA / Slow EMA.
Displays SL and TP levels on the chart.
Shows a label indicating the active pair currently being traded.
Alerts:
Generates alerts for long and short signals.
Can be used with TradingView alerts to notify or trigger webhooks.
Single Strategy Instance:
Fully compatible with Pine Script v6.
Only one strategy instance runs on the chart to prevent “too many strategies” errors.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "take profit"
Expected Value Monte CarloI created this indicator after noticing that there was no Expected Value indicator here on TradingView.
The EVMC provides statistical Expected Value to what might happen in the future regarding the asset you are analyzing.
It uses 2 quantitative methods:
Historical Backtest to ground your analysis in long-term, factual data.
Monte Carlo Simulation to project a cone of probable future outcomes based on recent market behavior.
This gives you a data-driven edge to quantify risk, and make more informed trading decisions.
The indicator includes:
Dual analysis: Combines historical probability with forward-looking simulation.
Quantified projections: Provides the Expected Value ($ and %), Win Rate, and Sharpe Ratio for both methods.
Asset-aware: Automatically adjusts its calculations for Stocks (252 trading days) and Crypto (365 days) for mathematical accuracy.
The projection cone shows the mean expected path and the +/- 1 standard deviation range of outcomes.
No repainting
Calculation:
1. Historical Expected Value:
This is a systematic backtest over thousands of bars. It calculates the return Rᵢ for N past trades (buy-and-hold). The Historical EV is the simple average of these returns, giving a baseline performance measure.
Historical EV % = (Σ Rᵢ) / N
2. Monte Carlo Projection:
This projection uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to simulate thousands of future price paths based on the market's recent behavior.
It first measures the drift (μ), or recent trend, and volatility (σ), or recent risk, from the Projection Lookback period. It then projects a final return for each simulation using the core GBM formula:
Projected Return = exp( (μ - σ²/2)T + σ√T * Z ) - 1
(Where T is the time horizon and Z is a random variable for the simulation.)
The purple line on the chart is the average of all simulated outcomes (the Monte Carlo EV). The cone represents one standard deviation of those outcomes.
The dashed lines represent one standard deviation (+/- 1σ) from the average, forming a cone of probable outcomes. Roughly 68% of the simulated paths ended within this cone.
This projection answers the question: "If the recent trend and volatility continue, where is the price most likely to go?"
Here's how to read the indicator
Expected Value ($/%): Is my average trade profitable?
Win Rate: How often can I expect to be right?
Sharpe Ratio: Am I being adequately compensated for the risk I'm taking?
User Guide
Max trade duration (bars): This is your analysis timeframe. Are you interested in the probable outcome over the next month (21 bars), quarter (63 bars), or year (252 bars)?
Position size ($): Set this to your typical trade size to see the Expected Value in real dollar terms.
Projection lookback (bars): This is the most important input for the Monte Carlo model. A short lookback (e.g., 50) makes the projection highly sensitive to recent momentum. Use this to identify potential recency bias. A long lookback (e.g., 252) provides a more stable, long-term projection of trend and volatility.
Historical Lookback (bars): For the historical backtest, more data is always better. Use the maximum that your TradingView plan allows for the most statistically significant results.
Use TP/SL for Historical EV: Check this box to see how the historical performance would have changed if you had used a simple Take Profit and Stop Loss, rather than just holding for the full duration.
I hope you find this indicator useful and please let me know if you have any suggestions. 😊
Ultimate📖 Indicator Description – Ultimate
The Ultimate Indicator is a complete charting framework that combines linear regression channels, dynamic deviation bands, EMA ribbons, volatility spreads, and entry/exit markers. It is designed to help traders visualize trend direction, potential reversals, and trade setups with precision.
🔹 What You See on the Chart
Channel Lines (Linear Regression Bands)
Green dotted line (median): Fair value trendline based on regression.
Red dashed line (upper band): Dynamic resistance zone.
Blue dashed line (lower band): Dynamic support zone.
Mid-bands (thin dotted red/blue): Halfway between median and outer bands, useful for scaling entries or partial exits.
🔹 EMA Ribbon (Light Green Shades)
Multiple EMAs (5, 8, 13, 21, 34) plotted in progressively lighter green.
Helps visualize momentum shifts and trend strength.
Ribbon turns more aqua/green when short-term EMAs align bullishly.
🙌Markers on Price
🔴 Red Circle (Dot): Short entry signal (price rejecting upper deviation band).
🔵 Blue Circle (Dot): Long entry signal (price bouncing off lower deviation band).
❌ Red X: Peak formation detected, potential short setup (not always valid).
🔷 Blue Diamond: Trough formation detected, potential long setup (not always valid).
Numbers Above/Below Candles
🔴Red numbers (above peaks): % spread from the bottom to the peak, showing upward volatility.
🔵 Blue numbers (below troughs): % spread from the top to the trough, showing downward volatility.
These values help traders gauge the strength of recent swings and compare volatility expansions.
🔹 Signal Logic🔹
🔵Long Signal (Blue Circle):
Forms when price makes a trough and crosses back above the lower regression band.
Confirms potential upside reversal with stop-loss guided by ATR or swing low.
🔴Short Signal (Red Circle):
Forms when price makes a peak and crosses below the upper regression band.
Confirms potential downside reversal with stop-loss guided by ATR or swing high.
❌ Peaks (Red X):
Indicate local tops. Not all peaks convert into shorts, but they warn of resistance zones.
🔹Troughs (Blue Diamonds):
Indicate local bottoms. Not all troughs convert into longs, but they warn of support zones.
🔹 Alerts
When a valid long or short setup is confirmed, an alert fires with:
Ticker name
Entry price
Suggested position size (Quantity)
Stop loss level (ATR-based or HL-based)
Take profit level (calculated by reward multiple)
🔹 Inputs & Customization
Quantity: Lot size suggestion.
Deviation: Multiplier for regression channel width.
Take Profit: Risk-to-reward multiplier.
Stop Loss: ATR or High/Low based.
Trend Lines: Choose between extended or fixed channels.
Period: Lookback window for regression.
Spread Percentages: Toggle volatility labels on/off.
🔹 How to Use
Trend Following: Ride price inside the channel using EMA ribbon alignment.
Reversal Trading: Enter at deviation extremes with confirmation signals.
Volatility Mapping: Use spread % labels to measure the strength of market swings.
Risk Management: ATR-based stops adapt to volatility, while HL stops give structural support/resistance.
✅ In summary:
The Ultimate Indicator is not just a regression channel—it’s a multi-layered system that highlights trend bias, entry/exit signals, volatility spreads, and adaptive risk levels. It allows traders to see at a glance whether the market is trending, ranging, or preparing for a reversal.
Trend-Strong Candle - 3 EMAs with Filters# Trend-Strong Candle - Professional Trading Indicator
## 📊 What It Does
Identifies high-probability entries by combining triple EMA trend analysis with strong candle detection. Only signals when all conditions align for maximum accuracy.
## 🎯 Core Features
- Triple EMA System: Fast (20) / Medium (50) / Slow (200) for trend confirmation
- Strong Candle Filter: ATR-based sizing ensures genuine momentum
- Advanced Filters: EMA close validation + trend stability checks
- Live Alerts: Instant notifications for real-time signals
- Session Filter: Trade only during active EU/US market hours
## ⚡ Quick Setup
Scalping (1-5min): Default settings + enable session filter
Day Trading (15-60min): Default settings work perfectly
Swing Trading (4H+): Increase ATR multiplier to 0.8-1.0
## 📈 Trading Rules
Long Signals: Green triangle below candle
- Strong bullish candle during confirmed uptrend
- All EMAs properly aligned (Fast > Medium > Slow)
Short Signals: Red triangle above candle
- Strong bearish candle during confirmed downtrend
- All EMAs properly aligned (Fast < Medium < Slow)
## ⚠️ Critical Success Factors
1. Always Verify the Trend Yourself
The indicator helps identify signals, but YOU must confirm the larger trend context. Check higher timeframes and overall market structure before entering.
2. Understand the "Big Players"
Strong candles in trend direction usually come from institutional money (banks, funds, algorithms). These create the momentum that retail traders can follow. The indicator catches these institutional moves.
3. Distance to Next Value Level
NEVER enter if price is too close to major resistance/support levels:
- Check distance to round numbers (1.1000, 1.1050, etc.)
- Ensure at least 20-30 pips room to next key level
- You need space for profit - tight levels = limited upside
4. Risk Management
- Stop Loss: 1-2 ATR from entry
- Take Profit: 2-3 ATR target (minimum 1:2 R/R)
- Position Size: Risk max 1-2% per trade
## 💡 Pro Tips
- Best Sessions: London open (8-12 UTC) and NY open (13-17 UTC)
- Avoid: Major news, low liquidity periods, choppy markets
- Multiple Timeframes: Confirm signals on higher timeframe
- Value Levels: Always check daily/weekly support/resistance before entering
## 🎯 Success Formula
Trend Confirmation + Strong Institutional Candle + Distance to Value Levels = High Probability Trade
*
Remember: The indicator finds the signals, but successful trading requires your analysis of trend context and value level positioning. Trade smart, not just frequent.
Recovery StrategyDescription:
The Recovery Strategy is a long-only trading system designed to capitalize on significant price drops from recent highs. It enters a position when the price falls 10% or more from the highest high over a 6-month lookback period and adds positions on further 2% drops, up to a maximum of 5 positions. Each trade is held for 6 months before exiting, regardless of profit or loss. The strategy uses margin to amplify position sizes, with a default leverage of 5:1 (20% margin requirement). All key parameters are customizable via inputs, allowing flexibility for different assets and timeframes. Visual markers indicate recent highs for reference.
How It Works:
Entry: Buys when the closing price drops 10% or more from the recent high (highest high in the lookback period, default 126 bars ~6 months). If already in a position, additional buys occur on further 2% drops (e.g., 12%, 14%, 16%, 18%), up to 5 positions (pyramiding).
Exit: Each trade exits after its own holding period (default 126 bars ~6 months), regardless of profit or loss. No stop loss or take-profit is used.
Margin: Uses leverage to control larger positions (default 20% margin, 5:1 leverage). The order size is a percentage of equity (default 100%), adjustable via inputs.
Visualization: Displays blue markers (without text) at new recent highs to highlight reference levels.
Inputs:
Lookback Period for High Peak (bars): Number of bars to look back for the recent high (default: 126, ~6 months on daily charts).
Initial Drop Percentage to Buy (%): Percentage drop from recent high to trigger the first buy (default: 10.0%).
Additional Drop Percentage to Buy (%): Further drop percentage to add positions (default: 2.0%).
Holding Period (bars): Number of bars to hold each position before selling (default: 126, ~6 months).
Order Size (% of Equity): Percentage of equity used per trade (default: 100%).
Margin for Long Positions (%): Percentage of position value covered by equity (default: 20%, equivalent to 5:1 leverage).
Usage:
Timeframe: Designed for daily charts (126 bars ~6 months). Adjust Lookback Period and Holding Period for other timeframes (e.g., 1008 hours for hourly charts, assuming 8 trading hours/day).
Assets: Suitable for stocks, ETFs, or other assets with significant price volatility. Test thoroughly on your chosen asset.
Settings: Customize inputs in the strategy settings to match your risk tolerance and market conditions. For example, lower Margin for Long Positions (e.g., to 10% for 10:1 leverage) to increase position sizes, but beware of higher risk.
Backtesting: Use TradingView’s Strategy Tester to evaluate performance. Check the “List of Trades” for skipped trades due to insufficient equity or margin requirements.
Risks and Considerations:
No Stop Loss: The strategy holds trades for the full 6 months without a stop loss, exposing it to significant drawdowns in prolonged downtrends.
Margin Risk: Leverage (default 5:1) amplifies both profits and losses. Ensure sufficient equity to cover margin requirements to avoid skipped trades or simulated margin calls.
Pyramiding: Up to 5 positions can be open simultaneously, increasing exposure. Adjust pyramiding in the code if fewer positions are desired (e.g., change to pyramiding=3).
Market Conditions: Performance depends on price drops and recoveries. Test on historical data to assess effectiveness in your market.
Broker Emulator: TradingView’s paper trading simulates margin but does not execute real margin trading. Results may differ in live trading due to broker-specific margin rules.
How to Use:
Add the strategy to your chart in TradingView.
Adjust input parameters in the settings panel to suit your asset, timeframe, and risk preferences.
Run a backtest in the Strategy Tester to evaluate performance.
Monitor open positions and margin levels in the Trading Panel to manage risk.
For live trading, consult your broker’s margin requirements and leverage policies, as TradingView’s simulation may not match real-world conditions.
Disclaimer:
This strategy is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, especially with leverage and no stop loss. Always backtest thoroughly and consult a financial advisor before using any strategy in live trading.
Weekly opening targets +-5%## Summary
This indicator automatically plots key percentage-based price levels above and below the current week's opening price. It is designed to provide traders with a clear map of potential intra-week support, resistance, and target zones based on clean, mathematical levels.
The script is lightweight and focuses on providing a clutter-free visual guide, making it easy to identify significant price areas at a glance.
## Features
Weekly Open Pivot: A central blue line clearly marks the opening price for the current week, acting as the primary baseline for all calculations.
Precise 1% Levels: The indicator calculates and draws horizontal lines at exact 1% increments away from the weekly open, covering a range from +/- 1% up to +/- 5%.
Color-Coded Zones: Levels above the weekly open are colored green (representing potential resistance or target zones), while levels below are colored red (representing potential support).
Real-Time Price Labels: To ensure clarity, clean labels are displayed on the right-hand side of the chart. Each label shows both its percentage deviation and the exact price, updating automatically with the latest data.
## How to Use
This tool is versatile, but here are a few common applications:
Identifying Support & Resistance: The primary use is to watch for price reactions at these calculated levels. A bounce off a lower (red) level could signal support, while a rejection from an upper (green) level could signal resistance.
Setting Profit Targets: The levels serve as excellent, non-subjective price targets. For example, if you enter a long position near the weekly open, the +1% and +2% levels are logical areas to consider taking profit.
Gauging Weekly Momentum: The distance price travels between these levels can help gauge the strength of the weekly trend. Consistently breaking through levels indicates strong momentum, while failing to do so may suggest consolidation.
This indicator is particularly useful for day traders and swing traders who use the weekly open as a key reference point for market sentiment and direction.
SPX EMA 9/21 + VWAP Strategy1. Temporality: 2 minutes.
2. EMA 9 and EMA 21:
• Purchase Call: when EMA 9 crosses up EMA 21 and the price is > VWAP.
• Put : when EMA 9 crosses down EMA 21 and the price is < VWAP.
3. Stop and Take Profit:
• Stop: candle closure on the other side of the VWAP.
• TP: configurable in points (e.g. +10 pts, +20 pts) or up to the opposite crossing of EMAs.
• Long enters when EMA 9 crosses up 21 and the price is above VWAP.
• Short enters when the EMA 9 crosses down the 21 and the price is below VWAP.
• TP and SL in SPX points (configurable in inputs).
• You can run in 2 minutes on SPX.
Sunmool's Silver Bullet Model FinderICT Silver Bullet Model Indicator - Complete Guide
📈 Overview
The ICT Silver Bullet Model indicator is a supplementary tool for utilizing ICT's (Inner Circle Trader) market structure analysis techniques. This indicator detects institutional liquidity hunting patterns and automatically identifies structural levels, helping traders analyze market structure more effectively.
🎯 Core Features
1. Structural Level Identification
STL (Short Term Low): Recent support levels formed in the short term
STH (Short Term High): Recent resistance levels formed in the short term
ITL (Intermediate Term Low): Stronger support levels with more significance
ITH (Intermediate Term High): Stronger resistance levels with more significance
2. Kill Zone Time Display
London Kill Zone: 02:00-05:00 (default)
New York Kill Zone: 08:30-11:00 (default)
These are the most active trading hours for institutional players where significant price movements occur
3. Smart Sweep Detection
Bear Sweep (🔻): Pattern where price sweeps below lows then recovers - Simply indicates sweep occurrence
Bull Sweep (🔺): Pattern where price sweeps above highs then declines - Simply indicates sweep occurrence
Important: Sweep labels only mark liquidity hunting locations, not directional bias.
🔧 Configuration Parameters
Basic Settings
Sweep Detection Lookback: Number of candles for sweep detection (default: 20)
Structure Point Lookback: Number of candles for structural point detection (default: 10)
Sweep Threshold: Percentage threshold for sweep validation (default: 0.1%)
Time Settings
London Kill Zone: Active hours for London session
New York Kill Zone: Active hours for New York session
Visualization Settings
Customizable colors for each level type
Enable/disable alert notifications
📊 How to Use
1. Chart Setup
Most effective on 1-minute to 1-hour timeframes
Recommended for major currency pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.)
Also applicable to cryptocurrencies and indices
2. Signal Interpretation
🔻 Bear Sweep / 🔺 Bull Sweep Labels
Simply indicate liquidity hunting occurrence points
Not directional bias indicators
Reference for understanding overall context on HTF
🟢 Silver Bullet Long (Huge Green Triangle)
After Bear Sweep occurrence
Within Kill Zone timeframe
Current price positioned above swept level
→ Actual BUY entry signal
🔴 Silver Bullet Short (Huge Red Triangle)
After Bull Sweep occurrence
Within Kill Zone timeframe
Current price positioned below swept level
→ Actual SELL entry signal
3. Risk Management
Use swept levels as stop-loss reference points
Approach signals outside Kill Zone hours with caution
Recommended to use alongside other technical analysis tools
💡 Trading Strategies
Silver Bullet Strategy
Preparation Phase: Monitor charts 30 minutes before Kill Zone
Sweep Observation: Identify liquidity hunting points with 🔻🔺 labels (reference only)
Entry: Enter ONLY when huge triangle Silver Bullet signal appears within Kill Zone
Take Profit: Target opposite structural level or 1:2 reward ratio
Stop Loss: Beyond the swept level
Important: Small sweep labels are NOT trading signals!
Multi-Timeframe Approach
Step 1: HTF (Higher Time Frame) Sweep Reference
Observe 🔻🔺 sweep labels on 4-hour and daily charts
Reference only sweeps occurring at major structural levels
HTF sweeps are used to identify liquidity hunting points
Reference only, not for directional bias
Step 2: Transition to LTF (Lower Time Frame)
Move to 15-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute charts
Analyze LTF with reference to HTF sweep information
Use STL, STH, ITL, ITH for precise entry point identification
Structural levels on LTF are the core of actual trading decisions
Only huge triangle (Silver Bullet) signals are actual entry signals
Recommended Usage
Identify overall sweep occurrence points on HTF (🔻🔺 labels)
Use this indicator on LTF to identify structural levels
Reference only huge triangle signals for actual trading during Kill Zone
Small sweep labels (🔻🔺) are for reference only, not entry signals
📋 Information Table Interpretation
Real-time information in the top-right table:
Kill Zone Status: Current active session status
Level Counts: Number of each structural level type
⚠️ Important Disclaimers
Backtesting results do not guarantee future performance
Exercise caution during high market volatility periods
Always apply proper risk management
Recommend comprehensive analysis with other analytical tools
🎓 Learning Resources
Study original ICT concepts through free YouTube educational content
Research Market Structure analysis techniques
Optimize through backtesting for personal use
🔬 Technical Implementation
Algorithm Logic
Pivot Point Detection: Uses TradingView's built-in pivot functions to identify swing highs and lows
Classification System: Automatically categorizes levels based on recent price action frequency
Sweep Validation: Confirms legitimate sweeps through price action analysis
Time-Based Filtering: Prioritizes signals during institutional active hours
Performance Optimization
Efficient array management prevents memory overflow
Dynamic level cleanup maintains chart clarity
Real-time calculation ensures minimal lag
🛠️ Customization Tips
Adjust lookback periods based on market volatility
Modify kill zone times for different market sessions
Experiment with sweep threshold for different instruments
Color-code levels according to personal preference
📈 Expected Outcomes
When properly implemented, this indicator can help traders:
Identify high-probability reversal points
Time entries with institutional flow
Reduce false signals through kill zone filtering
Improve risk-to-reward ratios
This indicator automates ICT's concepts into a user-friendly tool that can be enhanced through continuous learning and practical application. Success depends on understanding the underlying market structure principles and combining them with proper risk management techniques.
HMK-2 | PCA-1 + Rejim + Chebyshev + VWAP (Input'lu, v6)📌 HMK-2 | PCA-1 + Regime + Chebyshev + VWAP Strategy
1️⃣ Core Structure
Instead of relying on a single indicator, this system uses the Z-Score normalized average of three oscillators (RSI, MFI, ROC).
Signal (PCA-1):
RSI(14), MFI(14), ROC(5) → each is converted into a z-score.
Their average becomes the “composite signal,” our PCA-1 value.
Trend direction: If the Z-score EMA is rising → trend UP. If falling → trend DOWN.
2️⃣ Side Filters
Regime Filter (ADX + EMA)
ADX is calculated manually.
If ADX > 20 → trend exists → a 50-period EMA of this value smooths it.
This turns “trend regime” into a probability between 0–1.
Chebyshev Filter
A return series is checked against mean ± k*sigma bands.
If the return is within this band → valid signal. Extreme moves are filtered out.
VWAP Filter
Long trades: price must be above VWAP.
Short trades: price must be below VWAP.
Trades are only taken on the correct side of institutional cost averages.
3️⃣ Entry Conditions
Long:
PCA-1 signal crosses above threshold.
Trend Up + Regime OK + Chebyshev OK + Above VWAP.
Short:
PCA-1 signal crosses below threshold.
Trend Down + Regime OK + Chebyshev OK + Below VWAP.
4️⃣ Exit Mechanism
Main Exit: ATR-based stop/target.
Stop = entry price – ATR × (SL factor).
Take profit = entry price + ATR × (TP factor).
Additional Exit:
If price crosses to the opposite side of VWAP.
If PCA-1 signal crosses zero.
👉 Prevents trades from being locked, makes exits adaptive.
5️⃣ Labels / Visualization
AL / SHORT → entry points.
SAT / COVER → exit points.
VWAP line plotted in blue.
🧩 Strategy Features
Optimizable parameters:
Z-window (zWin)
Threshold
Chebyshev factor
ATR stop/target multipliers
This system works with:
Disciplined core (PCA-1 signal)
Triple protection (Regime + Chebyshev + VWAP)
Adaptive exits (ATR + VWAP/signal cross)
👉 Not a “single-indicator robot,” but a multi-filtered trade direction engine.
💡 Final Note
This is a base model of the system — open for further development.
I’ve shared the logic to give you a roadmap.
If you spot errors, fix them → that’s how you’ll improve it.
Don’t waste time asking me questions — refine and build it better yourselves.
Wishing you profitable trades. Stay well 🙏
Instant Breakout Strategy with RSI & VWAPInstant Breakout Strategy with RSI & VWAP
This TradingView strategy (Pine Script v6) trades breakouts using pivot points, with optional filters for volume, momentum, RSI, and VWAP. It’s optimized for the 1-second timeframe.
Overview
The strategy identifies breakouts when price crosses above resistance (pivot highs) or below support (pivot lows). It can use basic pivot breakouts or add filters for stronger signals. Take-profit and stop-loss levels are set using ATR, and signals are shown on the chart.
Inputs
Left/Right Pivot Bars: Bars to detect pivots (default: 3). Lower values increase sensitivity.
Volume Surge Multiplier: Volume threshold vs. 20-period average (default: 1.5).
Momentum Threshold: Minimum % price change from bar open (default: 1%).
Take-Profit ATR Multiplier: ATR multiplier for take-profit (default: 9.0).
Stop-Loss ATR Multiplier: ATR multiplier for stop-loss (default: 1.0).
Use Filters: Enable/disable volume, momentum, RSI, and VWAP filters (default: off).
How It Works
1. Pivot Detection
Finds pivot highs (resistance) and lows (support) using ta.pivothigh and ta.pivotlow.
Tracks the latest pivot levels.
2. Volume Surge
Compares current volume to a 20-period volume average.
A surge occurs if volume exceeds the average times the multiplier.
3. Momentum
Measures price change from the bar’s open.
Bullish: Price rises >1% from open.
Bearish: Price falls >1% from open.
4. RSI and VWAP
RSI: 3-period RSI. Above 50 is bullish; below 50 is bearish.
VWAP: Price above VWAP is bullish; below is bearish.
5. ATR
14-period ATR sets take-profit (close ± atr * 9.0) and stop-loss (close ± atr * 1.0).
Trading Rules
Breakout Conditions
Bullish Breakout:
Price crosses above the latest pivot high.
With filters: Volume surge, bullish momentum, RSI > 50, price > VWAP.
Without filters: Only the crossover is needed.
Bearish Breakout:
Price crosses below the latest pivot low.
With filters: Volume surge, bearish momentum, RSI < 50, price < VWAP.
Without filters: Only the crossunder is needed.
Entries and Exits
Long: Enter on bullish breakout. Set take-profit and stop-loss. Close any short position.
Short: Enter on bearish breakout. Set take-profit and stop-loss. Close any long position.
Visuals
Signals: Green triangles (bullish) below bars, red triangles (bearish) above bars.
Pivot Levels: Green line (resistance), red line (support).
Indicators: RSI (blue, separate pane), VWAP (purple, on chart).
How to Use
Apply to a 1-second chart in TradingView for best results.
Adjust inputs (e.g., pivot bars, multipliers). Enable filters for stricter signals.
Watch for buy/sell triangles and monitor RSI/VWAP.
Use ATR-based take-profit/stop-loss for risk management.
Notes
Best on 1-second timeframe due to fast RSI and responsiveness.
Disable filters for more signals (less confirmation).
Backtest before live trading to check performance.
This strategy uses pivots, volume, momentum, RSI, and VWAP for clear breakout trades on the 1-second timeframe.
PowerTrend Pro Strategy – Gold OptimizedTired of false signals on Gold?
PowerTrend Pro combines VWAP, Supertrend, RSI, and smart MA filters with trailing stops & break-even logic to deliver high-probability trades on XAUUSD.
PowerTrend Pro Strategy is a professional-grade trading system designed to capture high-probability swing and intraday opportunities on XAUUSD (Gold) and other volatile markets.
🔑 Core Features
VWAP Anchoring – institutional fair value reference to filter trades.
Supertrend (ATR-based) – adaptive trend filter tuned for Gold’s volatility.
Multi-Timeframe RSI – confirms momentum alignment across intraday and higher timeframe.
EMA + SMA Combo – ensures trades follow strong directional bias, reducing false signals.
Dynamic Risk Management
Adjustable Take Profit / Stop Loss (%)
Trailing Stop that locks in profits on extended moves
Break-Even Logic (stop loss moves to entry once price is in profit)
⚡ Gold-Tuned Presets
XAUUSD 1H → tighter TP/SL & faster entries for active intraday trading.
XAUUSD 4H → wider ATR filter & trailing stops to capture bigger swings.
Generic Mode → works on Forex, Indices, and Crypto (fully customizable).
🎯 Why It Works
Gold is notoriously volatile — quick spikes wipe out weak strategies. PowerTrend Pro solves this by combining:
✅ Institutional bias (VWAP)
✅ Adaptive trend filter (Supertrend)
✅ Momentum confirmation (RSI MTF)
✅ Robust trend structure (EMA + SMA)
✅ Smart exits (TP, SL, trailing & breakeven)
This multi-layer confirmation makes entries stronger and keeps risk under control.
🛠️ Usage
Add the strategy to your chart.
Choose a preset (XAUUSD 1H, 4H, or Generic).
Run Strategy Tester for performance metrics.
Optimize TP/SL and ATR values for your broker & market conditions.
🔥 Pro Tip: Combine this strategy with a session filter (London/NY overlap) or volume confirmation to boost accuracy in Gold.
Three-Step 9:30 Range Scalping# Three-Step 9:30 Range Scalping Strategy Rules
## Step 1: Mark the Levels (9:30 AM)
- Wait for the **first 5-minute candle** starting at 9:30 AM EST to close
- Mark the **HIGH** and **LOW** of this candle
- Switch to **1-minute chart** for trading
## Step 2: Find Your Entry (Trade for 1 hour only: 9:30-10:30 AM)
### BREAK Entry
- Need: **Fair Value Gap (FVG)** + **ANY** of the 3 FVG candles closes outside the range
- FVG = Gap between candle wicks (3-candle pattern)
### TRAP Entry
- Need: Break outside range → Retest back inside → Close back outside again
### REVERSAL Entry
- Need: Failed break in one direction → Opposite FVG back into the range
## Step 3: Trade Management
### Stop Loss:
- **Break/Trap**: Low/High of first candle that closed outside the range
- **Reversal**: Low/High of first candle in the FVG pattern
### Take Profit:
- **Always 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio**
- If you risk $100, you make $200
## Key Rules:
- ✅ **Body close** outside range (not just wicks)
- ✅ Trade on **1-minute chart** only
- ✅ Only trade **first hour** (9:30-10:30 AM EST)
- ✅ **Fixed 2:1** take profit every time
- ✅ One strategy, stay consistent
**That's it. No complicated indicators, no higher timeframe bias, no guesswork.**
Elliott Wave - Impulse + Corrective Detector (Demo) เทคนิคการใช้
สำหรับมือใหม่
ดูเฉพาะ Impulse Wave ก่อน
เทรดตาม direction ของ impulse
ใช้ Fibonacci เป็น support/resistance
สำหรับ Advanced
ใช้ Corrective Wave หาจุด reversal
รวม Triangle กับ breakout strategy
ใช้ Complex correction วางแผนระยะยาว
⚙️ การปรับแต่ง
ถ้าเจอ Pattern น้อยเกินไป
ลด Swing Length เป็น 3-4
เพิ่ม Max History เป็น 500
ถ้าเจอ Pattern เยอะเกินไป
เพิ่ม Swing Length เป็น 8-12
ปิด patterns ที่ไม่ต้องการ
สำหรับ Timeframe ต่างๆ
H1-H4: Swing Length = 5-8
Daily: Swing Length = 3-5
Weekly: Swing Length = 2-3
⚠️ ข้อควรระวัง
Elliott Wave เป็น subjective analysis
ใช้ร่วมกับ indicators อื่นๆ
Backtest ก่อนใช้เงินจริง
Pattern อาจเปลี่ยนได้ตลอดเวลา
🎓 สรุป
โค้ดนี้เป็นเครื่องมือช่วยวิเคราะห์ Elliott Wave ที่:
✅ ใช้งานง่าย
✅ ตรวจจับอัตโนมัติ
✅ มี confidence scoring
✅ แสดงผล Fibonacci levels
✅ ส่ง alerts เรียลไทม์
เหมาะสำหรับ: Trader ที่ต้องการใช้ Elliott Wave ในการวิเคราะห์เทคนิค แต่ไม่มีเวลานั่งหา pattern เอง
💡 Usage Tips
For Beginners
Focus on Impulse Waves first
Trade in the direction of impulse
Use Fibonacci as support/resistance levels
For Advanced Users
Use Corrective Waves to find reversal points
Combine Triangles with breakout strategies
Use Complex corrections for long-term planning
⚙️ Customization
If You See Too Few Patterns
Decrease Swing Length to 3-4
Increase Max History to 500
If You See Too Many Patterns
Increase Swing Length to 8-12
Turn off unwanted pattern types
For Different Timeframes
H1-H4: Swing Length = 5-8
Daily: Swing Length = 3-5
Weekly: Swing Length = 2-3
⚠️ Important Warnings
Elliott Wave is subjective analysis
Use with other technical indicators
Backtest before using real money
Patterns can change at any time
🔧 Troubleshooting
No Patterns Showing
Check if you have enough price history
Adjust Swing Length settings
Make sure pattern detection is enabled
Too Many False Signals
Increase confidence threshold requirements
Use higher timeframes
Combine with trend analysis
Performance Issues
Reduce Max History setting
Turn off unnecessary visual elements
Use on liquid markets only
📈 Trading Applications
Entry Strategies
Wave 3 Entry: After Wave 2 completion (61.8%-78.6% retracement)
Wave 5 Target: Equal to Wave 1 or Fibonacci extensions
Corrective Bounce: Trade reversals at C wave completion
Risk Management
Stop Loss: Beyond pattern invalidation levels
Take Profit: Fibonacci extension targets
Position Sizing: Based on pattern confidence
🎓 Summary
This code is an Elliott Wave analysis tool that offers:
✅ Easy to use interface
✅ Automatic pattern detection
✅ Confidence scoring system
✅ Fibonacci level display
✅ Real-time alerts
Perfect for: Traders who want to use Elliott Wave analysis but don't have time to manually identify patterns.
📚 Quick Reference
Pattern Hierarchy (Most to Least Reliable)
Impulse Waves (90% confidence)
Expanded Flats (85% confidence)
Zigzags (80% confidence)
Triangles (75% confidence)
Complex Corrections (70% confidence)
Best Practices
Start with higher timeframes for main trend
Use lower timeframes for precise entries
Always confirm with volume and momentum
Don't trade against strong fundamental news
Keep a trading journal to track performance
Remember: Elliott Wave is an art as much as a science. This tool helps identify potential patterns, but always use your judgment and additional analysis before making trading decisions.
Market Sessions By Zcointv/ScottfdxThis code has been writted By Zcointv/Scottfdx traders
This is a Market Volatility Box Breakout Strategy designed for intraday trading on 5-minute charts.
How it Works:
Volatility Box: The strategy defines a "volatility box" by capturing the price range (High and Low) around the New York market open.
The box begins one hour before the market open and ends 30 minutes after the market open.
The High and Low of this box are locked for the rest of the day.
Breakout Entry: A trade is opened only after this session period has ended.
Long: A 5-minute candle must close above the High of the box.
Short: A 5-minute candle must close below the Low of the box.
Risk Management:
1% Risk: Each trade risks a maximum of 1% of the total account equity. The position size is calculated dynamically based on this risk.
Stop Loss: The initial stop-loss is placed just outside the opposite side of the box.
1:1 Take Profit: The target is set at a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio.
Partial Exit & Breakeven: When the take-profit target is hit, 50% of the position is closed. The stop-loss for the remaining 50% is then immediately moved to the entry price (breakeven).
Key Features:
The strategy is limited to one trade per day.
The indicator also has options to display configurable boxes for the Tokyo and London sessions.
The High and Low levels of the volatility box are plotted on the chart for visual reference.
Crypto Pulse Signals+ Precision
Crypto Pulse Signals
Institutional-grade background signals for BTC/ETH low-timeframe trading (2m/5m/15m).
🔵 BLUE TINT = Valid LONG signal (enter when candle closes)
🔴 RED TINT = Valid SHORT signal (enter when candle closes)
🌫️ NO TINT = No signal (avoid trading)
✅ BTC Momentum Filter: ETH signals only fire when BTC confirms (avoids 78% of fakeouts)
✅ Volatility-Adaptive: Signals auto-adjust to market conditions (no manual tuning)
✅ Dark Mode Optimized: Perfect contrast on all chart themes
Pro Trading Protocol:
Trade ONLY during NY/London overlap (12-16 UTC)
Enter on candle close when tint appears
Stop loss: Below/above signal candle's wick
Take profit: 1.8x risk (68% win rate in backtests)
Based on live trading during 2024 bull run - no repaint, no lag.
🔍 Why This Description Converts
Element Purpose
Clear visual cues "🔵 BLUE TINT = LONG" works instantly for scanners
BTC filter emphasis Highlights institutional edge (ETH traders' #1 pain point)
Time-specific protocol Filters out low-probability Asian session signals
Backtested stats Builds credibility without hype ("68% win rate" = believable)
Dark mode mention Targets 83% of crypto traders who use dark charts
📈 Real Dark Mode Performance
(Tested on TradingView Dark Theme - ETH/USDT 5m chart)
UTC Time Signal Color Visibility Result
13:27 🔵 LONG Perfect contrast against black background +4.1% in 11 min
15:42 🔴 SHORT Red pops without bleeding into red candles -3.7% in 8 min
03:19 None Zero visual noise during Asian session Avoided 2 fakeouts
Pro Tip: On dark mode, the optimized #4FC3F7 blue creates a subtle "watermark" effect - visible in peripheral vision but never distracting from price action.
✅ How to Deploy
Paste code into Pine Editor
Apply to BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT chart (Binance/Kraken)
Set timeframe to 2m, 5m, or 15m
Trade signals ONLY between 12-16 UTC (NY/London overlap)
This is what professional crypto trading desks actually use - stripped of all noise, optimized for real screens, and battle-tested in volatile markets. No bottom indicators. No clutter. Just pure signals.
Open Range Breakout Strategy With Multi TakeProfitHello everyone,
For a while, I’ve been wanting to develop new scripts, but I couldn’t decide what to create. Eventually, I came up with the idea of coding traditional and well-known trading strategies—while adding modern features such as multi–take profit options. For the first strategy in this series, I chose the Open Range Strategy .
For those unfamiliar with it, the Open Range Strategy is a trading approach where you define a specific time period at the beginning of a trading session—such as the first 15 minutes, 30 minutes, or 1 hour—and mark the highest and lowest prices within that range. These levels then act as reference points for potential breakouts: if the price breaks above the range, it may signal a long entry; if it breaks below, it may indicate a short entry. This method is popular among day traders for capturing early momentum in the market.
Since this strategy is generally used as an intraday strategy , I added a Trade Session feature. This allows you to define the exact time window during which trades can be opened. Once the session ends, all positions are automatically closed, ensuring trades remain within your chosen intraday period.
Even though it’s a relatively simple concept, I’ve come across many different variations of it. That’s why I created a highly customizable project. Under the Session Settings, you can select the time window you want to define as your range. Whether it’s the first 15-minute candle or the entire first hour, the choice is entirely yours.
For stop-loss placement, there are two different options:
Middle of the Range – The stop loss is placed at the midpoint between the high and low of the defined range, offering a balanced buffer for both bullish and bearish setups.
Top/Bottom of the Range – The stop loss is placed just beyond the range’s high for short trades or just below the range’s low for long trades, providing a more conservative risk approach.
I’ve always been a big fan of the multi take-profit feature, so I added two different take-profit targets to this project. Take profits are calculated based on a Risk-to-Reward Ratio, which you can adjust in the settings. You can also set different position sizes for each target, allowing you to scale out of trades in a way that suits your strategy.
The result is a flexible, user-friendly strategy script that brings together a classic approach with modern risk management tools—ready to be tailored to your trading style
EAOBS by MIGVersion 1
1. Strategy Overview Objective: Capitalize on breakout movements in Ethereum (ETH) price after the Asian open pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST) by identifying high and low prices during the session and trading breakouts above the high or below the low.
Timeframe: Any (script is timeframe-agnostic, but align with session timing).
Session: Pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST, adjustable for other time zones, e.g., 12:00 AM–12:59 AM GMT).
Risk-Reward Ratios (R:R): Targets range from 1.2:1 to 5.2:1, with a fixed stop loss.
Instrument: Ethereum (ETH/USD or ETH-based pairs).
2. Market Setup Session Monitoring: Monitor ETH price action during the pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST), which aligns with the Asian market open (e.g., 9:00 AM–9:59 AM JST).
The script tracks the highest high and lowest low during this session.
Breakout Triggers: Buy Signal: Price breaks above the session’s high after the session ends (7:59 PM EST).
Sell Signal: Price breaks below the session’s low after the session ends.
Visualization: The session is highlighted on the chart with a white background.
Horizontal lines are drawn at the session’s high and low, extended for 30 bars, along with take-profit (TP) and stop-loss (SL) levels.
3. Entry Rules Long (Buy) Entry: Enter a long position when the price breaks above the session’s high price after 7:59 PM EST.
Entry price: Just above the session high (e.g., add a small buffer, like 0.1–0.5%, to avoid false breakouts, depending on volatility).
Short (Sell) Entry: Enter a short position when the price breaks below the session’s low price after 7:59 PM EST.
Entry price: Just below the session low (e.g., subtract a small buffer, like 0.1–0.5%).
Confirmation: Use a candlestick close above/below the breakout level to confirm the entry.
Optionally, add volume confirmation or a momentum indicator (e.g., RSI or MACD) to filter out weak breakouts.
Position Size: Calculate position size based on risk tolerance (e.g., 1–2% of account per trade).
Risk is determined by the stop-loss distance (10 points, as defined in the script).
4. Exit Rules Take-Profit Levels (in points, based on script inputs):TP1: 12 points (1.2:1 R:R).
TP2: 22 points (2.2:1 R:R).
TP3: 32 points (3.2:1 R:R).
TP4: 42 points (4.2:1 R:R).
TP5: 52 points (5.2:1 R:R).
Example for Long: If session high is 3000, TP levels are 3012, 3022, 3032, 3042, 3052.
Example for Short: If session low is 2950, TP levels are 2938, 2928, 2918, 2908, 2898.
Strategy: Scale out of the position (e.g., close 20% at TP1, 20% at TP2, etc.) or take full profit at a preferred TP level based on market conditions.
Stop-Loss: Fixed at 10 points from the entry.
Long SL: Session high - 10 points (e.g., entry at 3000, SL at 2990).
Short SL: Session low + 10 points (e.g., entry at 2950, SL at 2960).
Trailing Stop (Optional):After reaching TP2 or TP3, consider trailing the stop to lock in profits (e.g., trail by 10–15 points below the current price).
5. Risk Management per Trade: Limit risk to 1–2% of your trading account per trade.
Calculate position size: Account Size × Risk % ÷ (Stop-Loss Distance × ETH Price per Point).
Example: $10,000 account, 1% risk = $100. If SL = 10 points and 1 point = $1, position size = $100 ÷ 10 = 0.1 ETH.
Daily Risk Limit: Cap daily losses at 3–5% of the account to avoid overtrading.
Maximum Exposure: Avoid taking both long and short positions simultaneously unless using separate accounts or strategies.
Volatility Consideration: Adjust position size during high-volatility periods (e.g., major news events like Ethereum upgrades or macroeconomic announcements).
6. Trade Management Monitoring :Watch for breakouts after 7:59 PM EST.
Monitor price action near TP and SL levels using alerts or manual checks.
Trade Duration: Breakout lines extend for 30 bars (script parameter). Close trades if no TP or SL is hit within this period, or reassess based on market conditions.
Adjustments: If the market shows strong momentum, consider holding beyond TP5 with a trailing stop.
If the breakout fails (e.g., price reverses before TP1), exit early to minimize losses.
7. Additional Considerations Market Conditions: The 7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST session aligns with the Asian market open (e.g., Tokyo Stock Exchange open at 9:00 AM JST), which may introduce higher volatility due to Asian trading activity.
Avoid trading during low-liquidity periods or extreme volatility (e.g., major crypto news).
Check for upcoming events (e.g., Ethereum network upgrades, ETF decisions) that could impact price.
Backtesting: Test the strategy on historical ETH data using the session high/low breakouts for the 7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST window to validate performance.
Adjust TP/SL levels based on backtest results if needed.
Broker and Fees: Use a low-fee crypto exchange (e.g., Binance, Kraken, Coinbase Pro) to maximize R:R.
Account for trading fees and slippage in your position sizing.
Time zone Adjustment: Adjust session time input for your time zone (e.g., "0000-0059" for GMT).
Ensure your trading platform’s clock aligns with the script’s time zone (default: America/New_York).
8. Example Trade Scenario: Session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST) records a high of 3050 and a low of 3000.
Long Trade: Entry: Price breaks above 3050 (e.g., enter at 3051).
TP Levels: 3063 (TP1), 3073 (TP2), 3083 (TP3), 3093 (TP4), 3103 (TP5).
SL: 3040 (3050 - 10).
Position Size: For a $10,000 account, 1% risk = $100. SL = 11 points ($11). Size = $100 ÷ 11 = ~0.09 ETH.
Short Trade: Entry: Price breaks below 3000 (e.g., enter at 2999).
TP Levels: 2987 (TP1), 2977 (TP2), 2967 (TP3), 2957 (TP4), 2947 (TP5).
SL: 3010 (3000 + 10).
Position Size: Same as above, ~0.09 ETH.
Execution: Set alerts for breakouts, enter with limit orders, and monitor TPs/SL.
9. Tools and Setup Platform: Use TradingView to implement the Pine Script and visualize breakout levels.
Alerts: Set price alerts for breakouts above the session high or below the session low after 7:59 PM EST.
Set alerts for TP and SL levels.
Chart Settings: Use a 1-minute or 5-minute chart for precise session tracking.
Overlay the script to see high/low lines, TP levels, and SL levels.
Optional Indicators: Add RSI (e.g., avoid overbought/oversold breakouts) or volume to confirm breakouts.
10. Risk Warnings Crypto Volatility: ETH is highly volatile; unexpected news can cause rapid price swings.
False Breakouts: Breakouts may fail, especially in low-volume sessions. Use confirmation signals.
Leverage: Avoid high leverage (e.g., >5x) to prevent liquidation during volatile moves.
Session Accuracy: Ensure correct session timing for your time zone to avoid misaligned entries.
11. Performance Tracking Journaling :Record each trade’s entry, exit, R:R, and outcome.
Note market conditions (e.g., trending, ranging, news-driven).
Review: Weekly: Assess win rate, average R:R, and adherence to the plan.
Monthly: Adjust TP/SL or session timing based on performance.
LANZ Strategy 6.0🔷 LANZ Strategy 6.0 — NY Session Entry Tool & Multi-Account Risk Manager
LANZ Strategy 6.0 - Is a trading tool designed to help traders plan, execute, and manage operations with a focus on risk management, multi-account handling, and visual clarity.
It works exclusively on the 1-hour timeframe ⏳ and is optimized for the New York market opening dynamics.
🧠 Core Concept
The strategy identifies bullish trading opportunities based on the 09:00 NY candle. Once detected, it automatically calculates and draws:
EP (Entry Price) — The exact level where the trade setup triggers.
SL (Stop Loss) — Based on a customizable percentage of the candle's high–low range or wick extremes.
TP (Take Profit) — Calculated using your chosen Risk–Reward Ratio (e.g., 1:5, 1:3, etc.).
⚙️ Main Features
⏳ Time-Specific Execution
Operates only when the 09:00 NY candle closes bullish.
Ideal for traders who align with the New York Session market structure.
💰 Multi-Account Lot Size Management
Up to 5 independent accounts can be configured with their own capital and risk %, showing the exact lot size to use for each.
📏 Adaptive Risk Control
Supports both Forex and non-Forex assets (indices, gold, oil).
For non-Forex, you can manually define the pip value according to your broker’s specs.
🎨 Visual Trade Map
Automatically plots clean and easy-to-read EP, SL, and TP lines with customizable colors, styles, and thickness.
A floating information panel displays levels, pip distances, and lot sizes.
🔔 Real-Time Alerts
Alerts for:
Entry signal detection.
Stop Loss hit.
Take Profit hit.
Manual close at the defined session end.
📊 Example
If you trade GBPUSD with Account #1 set to $10,000 and 2% risk,
and the 09:00 NY candle closes bullish with SL = 30 pips and RR = 5:1:
EP, SL, and TP levels are drawn instantly.
Risk = $200 (2% of $10,000).
Lot size is calculated automatically.
All details are shown in the on-chart panel.
🛠️ How to Use
Load the indicator on a 1-hour chart.
Configure risk settings and account data.
Wait for the 09:00 NY candle to close bullish.
Use the displayed lot size and levels to execute your trade.
Let the tool alert you for SL, TP, or manual close.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This script is for educational purposes only. It does not guarantee profits and past performance does not represent future results. Always manage your risk responsibly.
👨💻 Credits:
💡 Developed by: LANZ
🧠 Execution Model & Logic Design: LANZ
📅 Designed for: 1H timeframe and NY-based entries
Kelly Position Size CalculatorThis position sizing calculator implements the Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. at Bell Laboratories in 1956, to determine mathematically optimal position sizes for maximizing long-term wealth growth. Unlike arbitrary position sizing methods, this tool provides a scientifically solution based on your strategy's actual performance statistics and incorporates modern refinements from over six decades of academic research.
The Kelly Criterion addresses a fundamental question in capital allocation: "What fraction of capital should be allocated to each opportunity to maximize growth while avoiding ruin?" This question has profound implications for financial markets, where traders and investors constantly face decisions about optimal capital allocation (Van Tharp, 2007).
Theoretical Foundation
The Kelly Criterion for binary outcomes is expressed as f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* represents the optimal fraction of capital to allocate, b denotes the risk-reward ratio, p indicates the probability of success, and q represents the probability of loss (Kelly, 1956). This formula maximizes the expected logarithm of wealth, ensuring maximum long-term growth rate while avoiding the risk of ruin.
The mathematical elegance of Kelly's approach lies in its derivation from information theory. Kelly's original work was motivated by Claude Shannon's information theory (Shannon, 1948), recognizing that maximizing the logarithm of wealth is equivalent to maximizing the rate of information transmission. This connection between information theory and wealth accumulation provides a deep theoretical foundation for optimal position sizing.
The logarithmic utility function underlying the Kelly Criterion naturally embodies several desirable properties for capital management. It exhibits decreasing marginal utility, penalizes large losses more severely than it rewards equivalent gains, and focuses on geometric rather than arithmetic mean returns, which is appropriate for compounding scenarios (Thorp, 2006).
Scientific Implementation
This calculator extends beyond basic Kelly implementation by incorporating state of the art refinements from academic research:
Parameter Uncertainty Adjustment: Following Michaud (1989), the implementation applies Bayesian shrinkage to account for parameter estimation error inherent in small sample sizes. The adjustment formula f_adjusted = f_kelly × confidence_factor + f_conservative × (1 - confidence_factor) addresses the overconfidence bias documented by Baker and McHale (2012), where the confidence factor increases with sample size and the conservative estimate equals 0.25 (quarter Kelly).
Sample Size Confidence: The reliability of Kelly calculations depends critically on sample size. Research by Browne and Whitt (1996) provides theoretical guidance on minimum sample requirements, suggesting that at least 30 independent observations are necessary for meaningful parameter estimates, with 100 or more trades providing reliable estimates for most trading strategies.
Universal Asset Compatibility: The calculator employs intelligent asset detection using TradingView's built-in symbol information, automatically adapting calculations for different asset classes without manual configuration.
ASSET SPECIFIC IMPLEMENTATION
Equity Markets: For stocks and ETFs, position sizing follows the calculation Shares = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Share Price). This straightforward approach reflects whole share constraints while accommodating fractional share trading capabilities.
Foreign Exchange Markets: Forex markets require lot-based calculations following Lot Size = Kelly Fraction × Account Size / (100,000 × Base Currency Value). The calculator automatically handles major currency pairs with appropriate pip value calculations, following industry standards described by Archer (2010).
Futures Markets: Futures position sizing accounts for leverage and margin requirements through Contracts = floor(Kelly Fraction × Account Size / Margin Requirement). The calculator estimates margin requirements as a percentage of contract notional value, with specific adjustments for micro-futures contracts that have smaller sizes and reduced margin requirements (Kaufman, 2013).
Index and Commodity Markets: These markets combine characteristics of both equity and futures markets. The calculator automatically detects whether instruments are cash-settled or futures-based, applying appropriate sizing methodologies with correct point value calculations.
Risk Management Integration
The calculator integrates sophisticated risk assessment through two primary modes:
Stop Loss Integration: When fixed stop-loss levels are defined, risk calculation follows Risk per Trade = Position Size × Stop Loss Distance. This ensures that the Kelly fraction accounts for actual risk exposure rather than theoretical maximum loss, with stop-loss distance measured in appropriate units for each asset class.
Strategy Drawdown Assessment: For discretionary exit strategies, risk estimation uses maximum historical drawdown through Risk per Trade = Position Value × (Maximum Drawdown / 100). This approach assumes that individual trade losses will not exceed the strategy's historical maximum drawdown, providing a reasonable estimate for strategies with well-defined risk characteristics.
Fractional Kelly Approaches
Pure Kelly sizing can produce substantial volatility, leading many practitioners to adopt fractional Kelly approaches. MacLean, Sanegre, Zhao, and Ziemba (2004) analyze the trade-offs between growth rate and volatility, demonstrating that half-Kelly typically reduces volatility by approximately 75% while sacrificing only 25% of the growth rate.
The calculator provides three primary Kelly modes to accommodate different risk preferences and experience levels. Full Kelly maximizes growth rate while accepting higher volatility, making it suitable for experienced practitioners with strong risk tolerance and robust capital bases. Half Kelly offers a balanced approach popular among professional traders, providing optimal risk-return balance by reducing volatility significantly while maintaining substantial growth potential. Quarter Kelly implements a conservative approach with low volatility, recommended for risk-averse traders or those new to Kelly methodology who prefer gradual introduction to optimal position sizing principles.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Extensive academic research supports the theoretical advantages of Kelly sizing. Hakansson and Ziemba (1995) provide a comprehensive review of Kelly applications in finance, documenting superior long-term performance across various market conditions and asset classes. Estrada (2008) analyzes Kelly performance in international equity markets, finding that Kelly-based strategies consistently outperform fixed position sizing approaches over extended periods across 19 developed markets over a 30-year period.
Several prominent investment firms have successfully implemented Kelly-based position sizing. Pabrai (2007) documents the application of Kelly principles at Berkshire Hathaway, noting Warren Buffett's concentrated portfolio approach aligns closely with Kelly optimal sizing for high-conviction investments. Quantitative hedge funds, including Renaissance Technologies and AQR, have incorporated Kelly-based risk management into their systematic trading strategies.
Practical Implementation Guidelines
Successful Kelly implementation requires systematic application with attention to several critical factors:
Parameter Estimation: Accurate parameter estimation represents the greatest challenge in practical Kelly implementation. Brown (1976) notes that small errors in probability estimates can lead to significant deviations from optimal performance. The calculator addresses this through Bayesian adjustments and confidence measures.
Sample Size Requirements: Users should begin with conservative fractional Kelly approaches until achieving sufficient historical data. Strategies with fewer than 30 trades may produce unreliable Kelly estimates, regardless of adjustments. Full confidence typically requires 100 or more independent trade observations.
Market Regime Considerations: Parameters that accurately describe historical performance may not reflect future market conditions. Ziemba (2003) recommends regular parameter updates and conservative adjustments when market conditions change significantly.
Professional Features and Customization
The calculator provides comprehensive customization options for professional applications:
Multiple Color Schemes: Eight professional color themes (Gold, EdgeTools, Behavioral, Quant, Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) with dark and light theme compatibility ensure optimal visibility across different trading environments.
Flexible Display Options: Adjustable table size and position accommodate various chart layouts and user preferences, while maintaining analytical depth and clarity.
Comprehensive Results: The results table presents essential information including asset specifications, strategy statistics, Kelly calculations, sample confidence measures, position values, risk assessments, and final position sizes in appropriate units for each asset class.
Limitations and Considerations
Like any analytical tool, the Kelly Criterion has important limitations that users must understand:
Stationarity Assumption: The Kelly Criterion assumes that historical strategy statistics represent future performance characteristics. Non-stationary market conditions may invalidate this assumption, as noted by Lo and MacKinlay (1999).
Independence Requirement: Each trade should be independent to avoid correlation effects. Many trading strategies exhibit serial correlation in returns, which can affect optimal position sizing and may require adjustments for portfolio applications.
Parameter Sensitivity: Kelly calculations are sensitive to parameter accuracy. Regular calibration and conservative approaches are essential when parameter uncertainty is high.
Transaction Costs: The implementation incorporates user-defined transaction costs but assumes these remain constant across different position sizes and market conditions, following Ziemba (2003).
Advanced Applications and Extensions
Multi-Asset Portfolio Considerations: While this calculator optimizes individual position sizes, portfolio-level applications require additional considerations for correlation effects and aggregate risk management. Simplified portfolio approaches include treating positions independently with correlation adjustments.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral finance research reveals systematic biases that can interfere with Kelly implementation. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) document loss aversion, overconfidence, and other cognitive biases that lead traders to deviate from optimal strategies. Successful implementation requires disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations.
Time-Varying Parameters: Advanced implementations may incorporate time-varying parameter models that adjust Kelly recommendations based on changing market conditions, though these require sophisticated econometric techniques and substantial computational resources.
Comprehensive Usage Instructions and Practical Examples
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on your desired trading instrument's chart. The system automatically detects asset type across stocks, forex, futures, and cryptocurrency markets while extracting current price information. Navigation to the indicator settings allows input of your specific strategy parameters.
Strategy statistics configuration requires careful attention to several key metrics. The win rate should be calculated from your backtest results using the formula of winning trades divided by total trades multiplied by 100. Average win represents the sum of all profitable trades divided by the number of winning trades, while average loss calculates the sum of all losing trades divided by the number of losing trades, entered as a positive number. The total historical trades parameter requires the complete number of trades in your backtest, with a minimum of 30 trades recommended for basic functionality and 100 or more trades optimal for statistical reliability. Account size should reflect your available trading capital, specifically the risk capital allocated for trading rather than total net worth.
Risk management configuration adapts to your specific trading approach. The stop loss setting should be enabled if you employ fixed stop-loss exits, with the stop loss distance specified in appropriate units depending on the asset class. For stocks, this distance is measured in dollars, for forex in pips, and for futures in ticks. When stop losses are not used, the maximum strategy drawdown percentage from your backtest provides the risk assessment baseline. Kelly mode selection offers three primary approaches: Full Kelly for aggressive growth with higher volatility suitable for experienced practitioners, Half Kelly for balanced risk-return optimization popular among professional traders, and Quarter Kelly for conservative approaches with reduced volatility.
Display customization ensures optimal integration with your trading environment. Eight professional color themes provide optimization for different chart backgrounds and personal preferences. Table position selection allows optimal placement within your chart layout, while table size adjustment ensures readability across different screen resolutions and viewing preferences.
Detailed Practical Examples
Example 1: SPY Swing Trading Strategy
Consider a professionally developed swing trading strategy for SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with backtesting results spanning 166 total trades. The strategy achieved 110 winning trades, representing a 66.3% win rate, with an average winning trade of $2,200 and average losing trade of $862. The maximum drawdown reached 31.4% during the testing period, and the available trading capital amounts to $25,000. This strategy employs discretionary exits without fixed stop losses.
Implementation requires loading the calculator on the SPY daily chart and configuring the parameters accordingly. The win rate input receives 66.3, while average win and loss inputs receive 2200 and 862 respectively. Total historical trades input requires 166, with account size set to 25000. The stop loss function remains disabled due to the discretionary exit approach, with maximum strategy drawdown set to 31.4%. Half Kelly mode provides the optimal balance between growth and risk management for this application.
The calculator generates several key outputs for this scenario. The risk-reward ratio calculates automatically to 2.55, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 53% before scientific adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 166 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 27% after Half Kelly and Bayesian adjustment factors. Position value reaches approximately $6,750, translating to 16 shares at a $420 SPY price. Risk per trade amounts to approximately $2,110, representing 31.4% of position value, with expected value per trade reaching approximately $1,466. This recommendation represents the mathematically optimal balance between growth potential and risk management for this specific strategy profile.
Example 2: EURUSD Day Trading with Stop Losses
A high-frequency EURUSD day trading strategy demonstrates different parameter requirements compared to swing trading approaches. This strategy encompasses 89 total trades with a 58% win rate, generating an average winning trade of $180 and average losing trade of $95. The maximum drawdown reached 12% during testing, with available capital of $10,000. The strategy employs fixed stop losses at 25 pips and take profit targets at 45 pips, providing clear risk-reward parameters.
Implementation begins with loading the calculator on the EURUSD 1-hour chart for appropriate timeframe alignment. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 58, average win at 180, and average loss at 95. Total historical trades input receives 89, with account size set to 10000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 25 pips, reflecting the fixed exit strategy. Quarter Kelly mode provides conservative positioning due to the smaller sample size compared to the previous example.
Results demonstrate the impact of smaller sample sizes on Kelly calculations. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 1.89, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 32% before adjustments. Sample confidence achieves 89%, providing moderate statistical confidence given the 89 trades. The recommended position settles at approximately 7% after Quarter Kelly application and Bayesian shrinkage adjustment for the smaller sample. Position value amounts to approximately $700, translating to 0.07 standard lots. Risk per trade reaches approximately $175, calculated as 25 pips multiplied by lot size and pip value, with expected value per trade at approximately $49. This conservative position sizing reflects the smaller sample size, with position sizes expected to increase as trade count surpasses 100 and statistical confidence improves.
Example 3: ES1! Futures Systematic Strategy
Systematic futures trading presents unique considerations for Kelly criterion application, as demonstrated by an E-mini S&P 500 futures strategy encompassing 234 total trades. This systematic approach achieved a 45% win rate with an average winning trade of $1,850 and average losing trade of $720. The maximum drawdown reached 18% during the testing period, with available capital of $50,000. The strategy employs 15-tick stop losses with contract specifications of $50 per tick, providing precise risk control mechanisms.
Implementation involves loading the calculator on the ES1! 15-minute chart to align with the systematic trading timeframe. Parameter configuration includes win rate at 45, average win at 1850, and average loss at 720. Total historical trades receives 234, providing robust statistical foundation, with account size set to 50000. The stop loss function is enabled with distance set to 15 ticks, reflecting the systematic exit methodology. Half Kelly mode balances growth potential with appropriate risk management for futures trading.
Results illustrate how favorable risk-reward ratios can support meaningful position sizing despite lower win rates. The risk-reward ratio calculates to 2.57, while the Kelly fraction reaches approximately 16%, lower than previous examples due to the sub-50% win rate. Sample confidence achieves 100% given the 234 trades providing high statistical confidence. The recommended position settles at approximately 8% after Half Kelly adjustment. Estimated margin per contract amounts to approximately $2,500, resulting in a single contract allocation. Position value reaches approximately $2,500, with risk per trade at $750, calculated as 15 ticks multiplied by $50 per tick. Expected value per trade amounts to approximately $508. Despite the lower win rate, the favorable risk-reward ratio supports meaningful position sizing, with single contract allocation reflecting appropriate leverage management for futures trading.
Example 4: MES1! Micro-Futures for Smaller Accounts
Micro-futures contracts provide enhanced accessibility for smaller trading accounts while maintaining identical strategy characteristics. Using the same systematic strategy statistics from the previous example but with available capital of $15,000 and micro-futures specifications of $5 per tick with reduced margin requirements, the implementation demonstrates improved position sizing granularity.
Kelly calculations remain identical to the full-sized contract example, maintaining the same risk-reward dynamics and statistical foundations. However, estimated margin per contract reduces to approximately $250 for micro-contracts, enabling allocation of 4-5 micro-contracts. Position value reaches approximately $1,200, while risk per trade calculates to $75, derived from 15 ticks multiplied by $5 per tick. This granularity advantage provides better position size precision for smaller accounts, enabling more accurate Kelly implementation without requiring large capital commitments.
Example 5: Bitcoin Swing Trading
Cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges requiring modified Kelly application approaches. A Bitcoin swing trading strategy on BTCUSD encompasses 67 total trades with a 71% win rate, generating average winning trades of $3,200 and average losing trades of $1,400. Maximum drawdown reached 28% during testing, with available capital of $30,000. The strategy employs technical analysis for exits without fixed stop losses, relying on price action and momentum indicators.
Implementation requires conservative approaches due to cryptocurrency volatility characteristics. Quarter Kelly mode is recommended despite the high win rate to account for crypto market unpredictability. Expected position sizing remains reduced due to the limited sample size of 67 trades, requiring additional caution until statistical confidence improves. Regular parameter updates are strongly recommended due to cryptocurrency market evolution and changing volatility patterns that can significantly impact strategy performance characteristics.
Advanced Usage Scenarios
Portfolio position sizing requires sophisticated consideration when running multiple strategies simultaneously. Each strategy should have its Kelly fraction calculated independently to maintain mathematical integrity. However, correlation adjustments become necessary when strategies exhibit related performance patterns. Moderately correlated strategies should receive individual position size reductions of 10-20% to account for overlapping risk exposure. Aggregate portfolio risk monitoring ensures total exposure remains within acceptable limits across all active strategies. Professional practitioners often consider using lower fractional Kelly approaches, such as Quarter Kelly, when running multiple strategies simultaneously to provide additional safety margins.
Parameter sensitivity analysis forms a critical component of professional Kelly implementation. Regular validation procedures should include monthly parameter updates using rolling 100-trade windows to capture evolving market conditions while maintaining statistical relevance. Sensitivity testing involves varying win rates by ±5% and average win/loss ratios by ±10% to assess recommendation stability under different parameter assumptions. Out-of-sample validation reserves 20% of historical data for parameter verification, ensuring that optimization doesn't create curve-fitted results. Regime change detection monitors actual performance against expected metrics, triggering parameter reassessment when significant deviations occur.
Risk management integration requires professional overlay considerations beyond pure Kelly calculations. Daily loss limits should cease trading when daily losses exceed twice the calculated risk per trade, preventing emotional decision-making during adverse periods. Maximum position limits should never exceed 25% of account value in any single position regardless of Kelly recommendations, maintaining diversification principles. Correlation monitoring reduces position sizes when holding multiple correlated positions that move together during market stress. Volatility adjustments consider reducing position sizes during periods of elevated VIX above 25 for equity strategies, adapting to changing market conditions.
Troubleshooting and Optimization
Professional implementation often encounters specific challenges requiring systematic troubleshooting approaches. Zero position size displays typically result from insufficient capital for minimum position sizes, negative expected values, or extremely conservative Kelly calculations. Solutions include increasing account size, verifying strategy statistics for accuracy, considering Quarter Kelly mode for conservative approaches, or reassessing overall strategy viability when fundamental issues exist.
Extremely high Kelly fractions exceeding 50% usually indicate underlying problems with parameter estimation. Common causes include unrealistic win rates, inflated risk-reward ratios, or curve-fitted backtest results that don't reflect genuine trading conditions. Solutions require verifying backtest methodology, including all transaction costs in calculations, testing strategies on out-of-sample data, and using conservative fractional Kelly approaches until parameter reliability improves.
Low sample confidence below 50% reflects insufficient historical trades for reliable parameter estimation. This situation demands gathering additional trading data, using Quarter Kelly approaches until reaching 100 or more trades, applying extra conservatism in position sizing, and considering paper trading to build statistical foundations without capital risk.
Inconsistent results across similar strategies often stem from parameter estimation differences, market regime changes, or strategy degradation over time. Professional solutions include standardizing backtest methodology across all strategies, updating parameters regularly to reflect current conditions, and monitoring live performance against expectations to identify deteriorating strategies.
Position sizes that appear inappropriately large or small require careful validation against traditional risk management principles. Professional standards recommend never risking more than 2-3% per trade regardless of Kelly calculations. Calibration should begin with Quarter Kelly approaches, gradually increasing as comfort and confidence develop. Most institutional traders utilize 25-50% of full Kelly recommendations to balance growth with prudent risk management.
Market condition adjustments require dynamic approaches to Kelly implementation. Trending markets may support full Kelly recommendations when directional momentum provides favorable conditions. Ranging or volatile markets typically warrant reducing to Half or Quarter Kelly to account for increased uncertainty. High correlation periods demand reducing individual position sizes when multiple positions move together, concentrating risk exposure. News and event periods often justify temporary position size reductions during high-impact releases that can create unpredictable market movements.
Performance monitoring requires systematic protocols to ensure Kelly implementation remains effective over time. Weekly reviews should compare actual versus expected win rates and average win/loss ratios to identify parameter drift or strategy degradation. Position size efficiency and execution quality monitoring ensures that calculated recommendations translate effectively into actual trading results. Tracking correlation between calculated and realized risk helps identify discrepancies between theoretical and practical risk exposure.
Monthly calibration provides more comprehensive parameter assessment using the most recent 100 trades to maintain statistical relevance while capturing current market conditions. Kelly mode appropriateness requires reassessment based on recent market volatility and performance characteristics, potentially shifting between Full, Half, and Quarter Kelly approaches as conditions change. Transaction cost evaluation ensures that commission structures, spreads, and slippage estimates remain accurate and current.
Quarterly strategic reviews encompass comprehensive strategy performance analysis comparing long-term results against expectations and identifying trends in effectiveness. Market regime assessment evaluates parameter stability across different market conditions, determining whether strategy characteristics remain consistent or require fundamental adjustments. Strategic modifications to position sizing methodology may become necessary as markets evolve or trading approaches mature, ensuring that Kelly implementation continues supporting optimal capital allocation objectives.
Professional Applications
This calculator serves diverse professional applications across the financial industry. Quantitative hedge funds utilize the implementation for systematic position sizing within algorithmic trading frameworks, where mathematical precision and consistent application prove essential for institutional capital management. Professional discretionary traders benefit from optimized position management that removes emotional bias while maintaining flexibility for market-specific adjustments. Portfolio managers employ the calculator for developing risk-adjusted allocation strategies that enhance returns while maintaining prudent risk controls across diverse asset classes and investment strategies.
Individual traders seeking mathematical optimization of capital allocation find the calculator provides institutional-grade methodology previously available only to professional money managers. The Kelly Criterion establishes theoretical foundation for optimal capital allocation across both single strategies and multiple trading systems, offering significant advantages over arbitrary position sizing methods that rely on intuition or fixed percentage approaches. Professional implementation ensures consistent application of mathematically sound principles while adapting to changing market conditions and strategy performance characteristics.
Conclusion
The Kelly Criterion represents one of the few mathematically optimal solutions to fundamental investment problems. When properly understood and carefully implemented, it provides significant competitive advantage in financial markets. This calculator implements modern refinements to Kelly's original formula while maintaining accessibility for practical trading applications.
Success with Kelly requires ongoing learning, systematic application, and continuous refinement based on market feedback and evolving research. Users who master Kelly principles and implement them systematically can expect superior risk-adjusted returns and more consistent capital growth over extended periods.
The extensive academic literature provides rich resources for deeper study, while practical experience builds the intuition necessary for effective implementation. Regular parameter updates, conservative approaches with limited data, and disciplined adherence to calculated recommendations are essential for optimal results.
References
Archer, M. D. (2010). Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's Forex Market (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). An empirical Bayes approach to optimising betting strategies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 61(1), 75-92.
Breiman, L. (1961). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. In J. Neyman (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability (pp. 65-78). University of California Press.
Brown, D. B. (1976). Optimal portfolio growth: Logarithmic utility and the Kelly criterion. In W. T. Ziemba & R. G. Vickson (Eds.), Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (pp. 1-23). Academic Press.
Browne, S., & Whitt, W. (1996). Portfolio choice and the Bayesian Kelly criterion. Advances in Applied Probability, 28(4), 1145-1176.
Estrada, J. (2008). Geometric mean maximization: An overlooked portfolio approach? The Journal of Investing, 17(4), 134-147.
Hakansson, N. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1995). Capital growth theory. In R. A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 9, pp. 65-86). Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kaufman, P. J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Kelly Jr, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton University Press.
MacLean, L. C., Sanegre, E. O., Zhao, Y., & Ziemba, W. T. (2004). Capital growth with security. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 28(4), 937-954.
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Michaud, R. O. (1989). The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is 'optimized' optimal? Financial Analysts Journal, 45(1), 31-42.
Pabrai, M. (2007). The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns. John Wiley & Sons.
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379-423.
Tharp, V. K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Thorp, E. O. (2006). The Kelly criterion in blackjack sports betting, and the stock market. In L. C. MacLean, E. O. Thorp, & W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (pp. 789-832). World Scientific.
Van Tharp, K. (2007). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Vince, R., & Zhu, H. (2015). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 161, 19-31.
Ziemba, W. T. (2003). The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management. The Research Foundation of AIMR.
Further Reading
For comprehensive understanding of Kelly Criterion applications and advanced implementations:
MacLean, L. C., Thorp, E. O., & Ziemba, W. T. (2011). The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific.
Vince, R. (1992). The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders. John Wiley & Sons.
Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Ziemba, W. T., & Vickson, R. G. (Eds.). (2006). Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance. World Scientific.
ATR+CCI Monetary Risk Tool - TP/SL⚙️ ATR+CCI Monetary Risk Tool — Volatility-aware TP/SL & Position Sizing
Exact prices (no rounding), ATR-percentile dynamic stops, and risk-budget sizing for consistent execution.
🧠 What this indicator is
A risk-first planning tool. It doesn’t generate orders; it gives you clean, objective levels (Entry, SL, TP) and position size derived from your risk budget. It shows only the latest setup to keep charts readable, and a compact on-chart table summarizing the numbers you actually act on.
✨ What makes it different
Dynamic SL by regime (ATR percentile): Instead of a fixed multiple, the SL multiplier adapts to the current volatility percentile (low / medium / high). That helps avoid tight stops in noisy markets and over-wide stops in quiet markets.
Risk budgeting, not guesswork: Size is computed from Account Balance × Max Risk % divided by SL distance × point value. You risk the same dollars across assets/timeframes.
Precision that matches your instrument: Entry, TP, SL, and SL Distance are displayed as exact prices (no rounding), truncated to syminfo.mintick so they align with broker/exchange precision.
Symbol-aware point value: Uses syminfo.pointvalue so you don’t maintain tick tables.
Non-repaint option: Work from closed bars to keep the plan stable.
🔧 How to use (quick start)
Add to chart and pick your timeframe and symbol.
In settings:
Set Account Balance (USD) and Max Risk per Trade (%).
Choose R:R (1:1 … 1:5).
Pick ATR Period and CCI Period (defaults are sensible).
Keep Dynamic ATR ON to adapt SL by regime.
Keep Use closed-bar values ON to avoid repaint when planning.
Read the labels (Entry/TP/SL) and the table (SL Distance, Position Size, Max USD Risk, ATR Percentile, effective SL Mult).
Combine with your entry trigger (price action, levels, momentum, etc.). This indicator handles risk & targets.
📐 How levels are computed
Bias: CCI ≥ 0 ⇒ long, otherwise short.
ATR Percentile: Percent rank of ATR(atrPeriod) over a lookback window.
Effective SL Mult:
If percentile < Low threshold ⇒ use Low SL Mult (tighter).
If between thresholds ⇒ use Base SL Mult.
If percentile > High threshold ⇒ use High SL Mult (wider).
Stop-Loss: SL = Entry ± ATR × SL_Mult (minus for long, plus for short).
Take-Profit: TP = Entry ± (Entry − SL) × R (R from the R:R dropdown).
Position Size:
USD Risk = Balance × Risk%
Contracts = USD Risk ÷ (|Entry − SL| × PointValue)
For futures, quantity is floored to whole contracts.
Exact prices: Entry/TP/SL and SL Distance are not rounded; they’re truncated to mintick so what you see matches valid price increments.
📊 What you’ll see on chart
Latest Entry (blue), TP (green), SL (red) with labels (optional emojis: ➡️ 🎯 🛑).
Info Table with:
Bias, Entry, TP, SL (exact, truncated to mintick)
SL Distance (exact, truncated)
Position Size (contracts/units)
Max USD Risk
Point Value
ATR Percentile and effective SL Mult
🧪 Practical examples
High-volatility session (e.g., XAUUSD, 1H): ATR percentile is high ⇒ wider SL, smaller size. Reduces churn from normal noise during macro events.
Range-bound market (e.g., EURUSD, 4H): ATR percentile low ⇒ tighter SL, better R:R. Helps you avoid carrying unnecessary risk.
Index swing planning (e.g., ES1!, Daily): Non-repaint levels + risk budgeting = consistent sizing across days/weeks, easier to review and journal.
🧭 Why traders should use it
Consistency: Same dollar risk regardless of instrument or volatility regime.
Clarity: One-trade view forces focus; you see the numbers that matter.
Adaptivity: Stops calibrated to the market’s current behavior, not last month’s.
Discipline: A visible checklist (SL distance, size, USD risk) before you hit buy/sell.
🔧 Input guide (practical defaults)
CCI Period: 100 by default; use as a bias filter, not an entry signal.
ATR Period: 14 by default; raise for smoother, lower for more reactive.
ATR Percentile Lookback: 200 by default (stable regime detection).
Percentile thresholds: 33/66 by default; widen the gap to change how often regimes switch.
SL Mults: Start ~1.5 / 2.0 / 2.5 (low/base/high). Tune by asset.
Risk % per trade: Common pro ranges are 0.25–1.0%; adjust to your risk tolerance.
R:R: Start with 1:2 or 1:3 for balanced skew; adapt to strategy edge.
Closed-bar values: Keep ON for planning/live; turn OFF only for exploration.
💡 Best practices
Combine with your entry logic (structure, momentum, liquidity levels).
Review ATR percentile and effective SL Mult across sessions so you understand regime shifts.
For futures, remember size is floored to whole contracts—safer by design.
Journal trades with the table snapshot to improve risk discipline over time.
⚠️ Notes & limitations
This is not a strategy; it does not place orders or alerts.
No slippage/commissions modeled here; build a strategy() version for backtests that mirror your broker/exchange.
Displayed non-price metrics use two decimals; prices and SL Distance are exact (truncated to mintick).
📎 Disclaimer
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Markets involve risk. Test thoroughly before trading live.
Ayman – Full Smart Suite Auto/Manual Presets + PanelIndicator Name
Ayman – Full Smart Suite (OB/BoS/Liq/FVG/Pin/ADX/HTF) + Auto/Manual Presets + Panel
This is a multi-condition trading tool for TradingView that combines advanced Smart Money Concepts (SMC) with classic technical filters.
It generates BUY/SELL signals, draws Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP1, TP2) levels, and displays a control panel with all active settings and conditions.
1. Main Features
Smart Money Concepts Filters:
Order Block (OB) Zones
Break of Structure (BoS)
Liquidity Sweeps
Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
Pin Bar patterns
ADX filter
Higher Timeframe EMA filter (HTF EMA)
Two Operating Modes:
Auto Presets: Automatically adjusts all settings (buffers, ATR multipliers, RR, etc.) based on your chart timeframe (M1/M5/M15).
Manual Mode: Fully customize all parameters yourself.
Trade Management Levels:
Stop Loss (SL)
TP1 – partial profit
TP2 – full profit
Visual Panel showing:
Current settings
Filter status
Trend direction
Last swing levels
SL/TP status
Alerts for BUY/SELL conditions
2. Entry Conditions
A BUY signal is generated when all these are true:
Trend: Price above EMA (bullish)
HTF EMA: Higher timeframe trend also bullish
ADX: Trend strength above threshold
OB: Price in a valid bullish Order Block zone
BoS: Structure break to the upside
Liquidity Sweep: Sweep of recent lows in bullish context
FVG: A bullish Fair Value Gap is present
Pin Bar: Bullish Pin Bar pattern detected (if enabled)
A SELL signal is generated when the opposite conditions are met.
3. Stop Loss & Take Profits
SL: Placed just beyond the last swing low (BUY) or swing high (SELL), with a small ATR buffer.
TP1: Partial profit target, defined as a ratio of the SL distance.
TP2: Full profit target, based on Reward:Risk ratio.
4. How to Use
Step 1 – Apply Indicator
Open TradingView
Go to your chart (recommended: XAUUSD, M1/M5 for scalping)
Add the indicator script
Step 2 – Choose Mode
AUTO Mode: Leave “Use Auto Presets” ON – parameters adapt to your timeframe.
MANUAL Mode: Turn Auto OFF and adjust all lengths, buffers, RR, and filters.
Step 3 – Filters
In the Filters On/Off section, enable/disable specific conditions (OB, BoS, Liq, FVG, Pin Bar, ADX, HTF EMA).
Step 4 – Trading the Signals
Wait for a BUY or SELL arrow to appear.
SL and TP levels will be plotted automatically.
TP1 can be used for partial close and TP2 for full exit.
Step 5 – Alerts
Set alerts via BUY Signal or SELL Signal to receive notifications.
5. Best Practices
Scalping: Use M1 or M5 with AUTO mode for gold or forex pairs.
Swing Trading: Use M15+ and adjust buffers/ATR manually.
Combine with price action confirmation before entering trades.
For higher accuracy, wait for multiple filter confirmations rather than acting on the first arrow.
6. Summary Table
Feature Purpose Can Disable?
Order Block Finds key supply/demand zones ✅
Break of Structure Detects trend continuation ✅
Liquidity Sweep Finds stop-hunt moves ✅
Fair Value Gap Confirms imbalance entries ✅
Pin Bar Price action reversal filter ✅
ADX Trend strength filter ✅
HTF EMA Higher timeframe confirmation ✅
BTC 1m Chop Top/Bottom Reversal (Stable Entries)Strategy Description: BTC 5m Chop Top/Bottom Reversal (Stable Entries)
This strategy is engineered to capture precise reversal points during Bitcoin’s choppy or sideways price action on the 5-minute timeframe. It identifies short-term tops and bottoms using a confluence of volatility bands, momentum indicators, and price structure, optimized for high-probability scalping and intraday reversals.
Core Logic:
Volatility Filter: Uses an EMA with ATR bands to define overextended price zones.
Momentum Divergence: Confirms reversals using RSI and MACD histogram shifts.
Price Action Filter: Requires candle confirmation in the direction of the trade.
Locked Signal Logic: Prevents repaints and disappearing trades by confirming signals only once per bar.
Trade Parameters:
Short Entry: Above upper band + overbought RSI + weakening MACD + bearish candle
Long Entry: Below lower band + oversold RSI + strengthening MACD + bullish candle
Take Profit: ±0.75%
Stop Loss: ±0.4%
This setup is tuned for traders using tight risk control and leverage, where execution precision and minimal drawdown tolerance are critical.
FVG & Order Block Sync Pro - Enhanced🏦 FVG & Order Block Sync Pro Enhanced
The AI-Powered Institutional Trading System That Changes Everything
Tired of Guessing Where Price Will Go Next?
What if you could see EXACTLY where banks and institutions are placing their orders?
Introducing the FVG & Order Block Sync Pro Enhanced - the first indicator that combines institutional Smart Money Concepts with next-generation AI technology to reveal the hidden blueprint of the market.
🎯 Finally, Trade Alongside the Banks - Not Against Them
For years, retail traders have been fighting a losing battle. Why? Because they can't see what the institutions see.
Until now.
Our revolutionary indicator exposes:
🏛️ Institutional Order Blocks - The exact zones where banks accumulate positions
💰 Fair Value Gaps - Price inefficiencies that act as magnets for future price movement
📊 Real-Time Structure Breaks - Know instantly when smart money shifts direction
🎯 Banker Candle Patterns - Spot institutional rejection zones before reversals
🤖 Next-Level AI Technology That Thinks Like a Bank Trader
This isn't just another indicator with arrows. Our advanced AI engine:
Analyzes 100+ Data Points Per Second across multiple timeframes
Machine Learning Pattern Recognition that improves with every trade
Multi-Symbol Correlation Analysis to confirm institutional flow
Predictive Sentiment Scoring that gauges market momentum in real-time
Confluence Algorithm that rates every signal from 0-10 for probability
Result? You're not following indicators - you're following institutional order flow.
📈 Perfect for Forex & Futures Markets
Whether you're trading:
Major Forex Pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY)
Futures Contracts (ES, NQ, CL, GC)
Indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW)
Commodities (Gold, Oil, Silver)
The indicator adapts to any market that institutions trade - because it tracks THEIR footprints.
💎 What Makes This Different?
1. SMC + Market Structure Fusion
First indicator to combine Order Blocks, FVG, BOS, and CHOCH in one system
Shows not just WHERE to trade, but WHY price will move there
2. The "Sync" Advantage
Only signals when BOTH Fair Value Gap AND Order Block align
Filters out 73% of false signals that single-concept indicators miss
3. Institutional-Grade Dashboard
See what a bank trader sees: 5 timeframes at once
Real-time strength meters showing institutional momentum
Multi-symbol analysis for correlation confirmation
AI-powered signal strength scoring
4. No More Analysis Paralysis
Clear BUY/SELL signals with exact entry zones
Built-in stop loss and take profit levels
Signal strength rating tells you position size
📊 Real Traders, Real Results
"I went from a 45% win rate to 78% in just 3 weeks. The ability to see where banks are operating completely changed my trading." - Sarah T., Forex Trader
"The AI signal strength feature alone paid for this indicator 10x over. I only take 8+ scores now and my account has never been more consistent." - Mike D., Futures Trader
"Finally an indicator that shows market structure properly. The CHOCH alerts saved me from countless losing trades." - Alex R., Day Trader
🚀 Everything You Get:
✅ Institutional Zone Detection - FVG, Order Blocks, Liquidity Zones
✅ AI-Powered Analysis - ML patterns, sentiment scoring, predictive algorithms
✅ Market Structure Mastery - BOS/CHOCH with visual trend lines
✅ Multi-Timeframe Dashboard - 5 timeframes updated in real-time
✅ Banker Candle Recognition - Spot institutional reversals
✅ Advanced Alert System - Never miss a high-probability setup
✅ Risk Management Built-In - Automatic position sizing guidance
✅ Works on ALL Timeframes - From 1-minute scalping to daily swing trading
🎓 Who This Is Perfect For:
Frustrated Traders tired of indicators that lag behind price
Serious Traders ready to level up with institutional concepts
Forex Traders wanting to catch major pair movements
Futures Traders seeking precise ES/NQ entries
Anyone who wants to stop gambling and start trading with the banks
⚡ The Bottom Line:
Every day, institutions move billions through the markets. They leave footprints. This indicator reveals them.
Stop trading blind. Start trading with institutional vision.
While other traders are still drawing trend lines and hoping for the best, you'll be entering positions at the exact zones where smart money operates.
🔥 Limited Time Bonus Features:
Multi-Symbol Analysis - Track 3 correlated pairs simultaneously
AI Confidence Scoring - Know exactly when NOT to trade
Volume Confluence Filters - Confirm institutional participation
Custom Alert Templates - Set up once, trade anywhere
Free Updates Forever - As the AI learns, your edge grows
💪 Make the Decision That Changes Your Trading Forever
Every day you trade without seeing institutional zones is a day you're trading with a massive disadvantage.
The banks aren't smarter than you. They just see things you don't.
Until you add this indicator to your chart.
Join thousands of traders who've discovered what it feels like to trade WITH the flow of institutional money instead of against it.
Because when you can see what the banks see, you can trade like the banks trade.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Trading forex and futures carries significant risk. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This indicator is a tool for analysis, not a guarantee of profits. Always use proper risk management.
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The difference between amateur and professional trading is information. Now you can have both.
